Trump vs. Powell: Why the Fed Chair Stayed Hawkish

Last week, a public clash between President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell grabbed headlines. Trump demanded lower interest rates, claiming, “Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete ‘mess!’ … Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!” Powell, however, stood firm, stating, “For the time being, we are well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.” At Vaultis Private Wealth, we believe this spat reveals critical insights about the Fed’s priorities. This firm rate policy—favoring steady rates to stabilize markets—potentially signals Powell’s focus on protecting the U.S. Treasury market amid uncertainty. In this article, we explore why Powell responded this way and what it means for your portfolios.

Trump’s push for rate cuts aims to spur economic growth, particularly as consumer confidence falters amid tariff concerns. Recent data presents a mixed picture: real GDP grew at a 2.4% annual rate in Q4 2024, down from 3.1% in Q3, signaling a slowdown. Q1 2025 growth forecasts range from -2.2% annualized (Atlanta Fed GDPNow) to 2.5% (Philadelphia Fed), reflecting tariff pressures. Inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index, eased to 2.4% in March 2025, yet remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Powell’s firm rate policy—maintaining steady or higher rates to curb inflation and stabilize markets—clashes with Trump’s agenda, underscoring the Fed’s independence. By prioritizing bond market stability, Powell aims to prevent disruptions that could worsen economic stability.

A key factor to consider is that Powell’s hawkish rate policy stems from his focus on stabilizing the U.S. Treasury market, where bonds fund government borrowing. The U.S. faces a projected $2.4 trillion budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 and $9.7 trillion in debt refinancing, boosting Treasury supply, while foreign investors, holding $8.7 trillion (30% of marketable Treasuries), may buy less amid tariff tensions (https://vaultis.com/knowledge-center/foreign-ownership-in-us-treasuries). Think of the Treasury market like an auction: too many bonds for sale and fewer buyers could push yields higher, risking instability. This unique scenario—waning demand alongside rising supply—presents risks that could destabilize the treasury market. By maintaining steady or higher rates, it is possible Powell is attempting to ensure demand for Treasuries and a stable financial system.

Powell’s hawkish stance, long-term supply dynamics, and potential demand reduction suggest U.S. Treasury yields may remain elevated, impacting bond portfolios. The 10-year Treasury yield, currently at 4.35%, has seen significant swings over the past two weeks. For instance, it rose from 4.0% on April 1 to 4.5% by April 11 before settling at 4.41% on April 21 all while we experienced equity market volatility. Bonds are typically seen as a safe haven in portfolios but when yields rise, prices fall, creating risks for investors holding longer-term bonds. Allocating to shorter-term bonds, which are less sensitive to rate changes, may help manage this risk, though strategies must align with your financial goals and risk tolerance. At Vaultis Private Wealth, we’re guiding clients to review fixed-income allocations to navigate these market pressures, ensuring our client portfolios are properly positioned.

The public spat between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell marks a pivotal moment for monetary policy. By maintaining steady or higher rates, Powell is likely seeking to address the risks in the treasury market. This firm rate policy counters Trump’s aggressive push for rate cuts, underscoring the Fed’s resolve in turbulent times. At Vaultis Private Wealth, our cautious approach to long-term Treasuries reflects the risks of elevated yields and market pressures outlined in this article, demonstrating our commitment to prudent, data-driven strategies for navigating complex markets.

Disclaimer:

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Data and projections, including budget deficits, Treasury yields, and economic forecasts, are based on sources believed to be reliable but are subject to change and inherent uncertainties. Forward-looking statements, such as potential market impacts from tariff or policy changes or investment strategies, involve risks, including lower yields or reinvestment risks for bond strategies, and may not occur as anticipated. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risks, including loss of principal. Consult a professional for personalized guidance tailored to your financial goals and risk tolerance.

The Risk of Foreign Ownership in U.S. Treasuries

We find ourselves in a unique place in the fixed income market, specifically with Treasuries. On April 4, 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.009%, only to climb to 4.494% by April 11—despite significant volatility in the equity markets. Historically, investors flock to the safety of U.S. government bonds during periods of stock market stress, driving yields lower. In this blog, we explore a critical factor we are closely monitoring: the risks posed by foreign ownership of U.S. Treasuries.

Foreign investors and central banks currently hold approximately $8.5 trillion in Treasury securities, representing roughly 30% of the total marketable Treasury debt. This substantial share underscores the importance of international demand in sustaining the Treasury market’s stability. However, this reliance introduces vulnerabilities, particularly in an environment shaped by President Trump’s “America First” policies and intermittent tariff proposals. Should foreign investors or central banks respond to trade tensions by selling their Treasury holdings or refraining from purchasing new issuances, the impact on the Treasury market could be significant.

The scale of this risk becomes evident when we consider the U.S. government’s borrowing needs. Over the next 12 months, approximately $9.3 trillion in Treasury debt is projected to mature, while the federal budget deficit is expected to reach $2.6 trillion. Together, this necessitates issuing roughly $12 trillion in new debt—a considerable figure relative to the $29 trillion marketable Treasury market.

If foreign demand weakens, whether due to retaliatory trade actions or other factors, yields could rise sharply as the Treasury competes for buyers. Higher yields would elevate the government’s interest expenses, exacerbating the fiscal deficit. We suspect this dynamic may have influenced President Trump’s recent decision to delay tariff implementations, as rising yields signaled caution in the bond market.

This foreign ownership risk is but one consideration in a multifaceted Treasury market (e.g., inflation, Fed policy, recession). On the supply side, the U.S. fiscal outlook suggests persistent government spending, requiring continuous issuance of Treasuries to finance deficits. Any disruption to demand—foreign or otherwise—could push rates higher, challenging the historical perception of Treasuries as a risk-free safe haven.

Foreign ownership of Treasuries during a potential trade war is one of multiple reasons we have found ourselves cautious about owning long-term Treasuries in our client portfolios. While historically considered a safe haven, the unique combination of factors at play introduces the risk that rates may need to increase in the coming years to satisfy the growing supply of Treasuries. When looking to reduce risk in our client portfolios, we are focusing on shorter-term, less interest-rate-sensitive fixed income areas.

Disclaimer: This blog post is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, legal advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Investing involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. The views expressed reflect Vaultis Private Wealth’s analysis as of April 14, 2025, and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult a qualified financial advisor to discuss your individual circumstances before making investment decisions.

Taking On Faux Diversification

In the investment world, diversification is often touted as the holy grail of risk management. But at Vaultis Private Wealth, we've observed a troubling trend: what we call "faux diversification." Too many advisory firms create portfolios that merely check boxes across various broad asset classes – large cap, international, small cap – and label them as diversified portfolios. The issue? These broad asset classes, while different on paper, often perform similarly during market downturns, leaving investors exposed to more risk than they realize.

True diversification isn't about owning a little bit of everything; it's about thoughtful, research-driven exposure to specific market segments that can perform differently under various economic conditions. At Vaultis, we take a fundamentally different approach to building truly diversified portfolios.

Precision Over Generalization

While broad-based ETFs can play a role in our portfolios, we don't stop there. Our approach involves digging deeper when our research indicates more specific opportunities. Take emerging markets, for instance. Sometimes a broad emerging markets fund might be the right choice, but often our analysis leads us to more targeted investments. This could mean allocating to small-cap Indian companies or large-cap Latin American firms, based on our thorough analysis of growth potential and market conditions.

This nuanced approach allows us to capture unique market dynamics and growth opportunities that might be overlooked in a more generalized strategy. It's not just about being in emerging markets; it's about being in the right emerging markets, in the right way, at the right time.

By combining broad-based funds where appropriate with more specific, research-based selections, we aim to create a truly diversified portfolio that goes beyond surface-level asset allocation.

Conviction-Driven Allocations

Another key differentiator in our approach is our willingness to take strong positions based on our research and convictions. We're not bound by industry norms or benchmark weightings. If our analysis suggests that U.S. large-cap stocks offer superior opportunities, we're not afraid to significantly overweight this sector compared to our industry peers.

Conversely, if we believe international equities are likely to face headwinds, we might substantially underweight this sector. This dynamic approach, driven by ongoing research and team debates, ensures that our portfolios reflect our best current thinking rather than a static, "set-it-and-forget-it" allocation.

Continuous Evaluation and Adaptation

Our commitment to true diversification doesn't end with initial portfolio construction. Our investment team constantly challenges our assumptions, debates our positions, and re-evaluates our holdings. This ongoing process ensures that our portfolios evolve with changing market conditions and emerging opportunities.

We're not wedded to any particular allocation or strategy. If our research indicates a shift in market dynamics, we're prepared to adjust our portfolios accordingly. This flexibility is crucial in navigating the complex and ever-changing global investment landscape.

The Vaultis Difference

While many in the industry claim to offer diversified portfolios, we believe our approach offers a distinct perspective. By focusing on specific exposures rather than broad categories, maintaining the conviction to take strong positions when warranted, and continuously evaluating and adapting our strategies, we aim to provide our clients with portfolios designed to weather various market conditions.

True diversification isn't about spreading investments thin across numerous categories. It's about thoughtful, research-driven allocation to specific opportunities that offer genuine diversification benefits. At Vaultis, we're committed to cutting through the noise of "faux diversification" to deliver portfolios that are genuinely designed to meet our clients' long-term financial goals.

In a world where many advisors offer a one-size-fits-all approach to diversification, Vaultis stands out with its tailored, research-driven strategy.

Disclosures:

Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. The opinions expressed are those of Vaultis Private Wealth and are subject to change without notice.

Navigating Fixed Income in a Changing Landscape

In the world of investing, bonds have long been considered a safe harbor, a reliable counterweight to the volatility of stocks. However, at Vaultis Private Wealth, our outlook on bonds is more nuanced as we recognize that the fixed income landscape has evolved significantly in recent years. We believe that many investors may be underestimating the risks lurking within their fixed income allocations. As the financial landscape evolves, it's crucial to reassess the role and risks of bonds in modern portfolios.

Current Market Risks in the Bond Sector

The bond market today faces a storm of challenges that investors cannot afford to ignore. At the core of these challenges is the precarious fiscal situation in which many developed economies, including the United States, find themselves. Massive government spending and ballooning deficits have led to unprecedented levels of national debt. This fiscal reality puts significant pressure on the bond market, potentially leading to higher yields and lower prices.

Moreover, inflation has become a persistent and unpredictable concern. While we've seen periods of moderation, it's likely that we'll continue to see inflation ebb and flow in the coming years. This cyclical nature of inflation creates a challenging environment for bonds. During inflationary spikes, the real value of bond returns erodes quickly. Conversely, when inflation moderates, central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, may adjust interest rates, causing bond prices to fluctuate. This constant push and pull makes it difficult for bonds to deliver consistent real returns.

From a real return perspective – that is, returns after accounting for inflation – the outlook for traditional bonds is particularly challenging. With nominal yields still relatively low by historical standards, even modest inflation can significantly eat into returns. As inflation waxes and wanes, many bond investments may struggle to provide meaningful real returns over time. This situation creates a significant hurdle for investors relying on bonds for wealth preservation and income, as the purchasing power of their bond returns may be consistently undermined by inflationary pressures.

The Danger of Complacency in Fixed Income Investing

Despite these clear and present risks, many investors and advisors continue to treat their bond allocations with a "set it and forget it" mentality. This complacency is particularly concerning given the stark reminder we received in 2022 of how quickly bond markets can turn.

In 2022, as interest rates rose sharply, many bond investors experienced significant losses – a reality that caught many off guard. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, a common benchmark for the broad bond market, posted its worst annual return in decades. To put this into perspective, the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG), which tracks this index, suffered a -13.01% total return in 2022. Even more dramatically, longer-duration government bonds, as represented by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), plummeted by -31.22% in the same year. This event should have been a wake-up call, yet many investors seem to have hit the snooze button.

The persistent view of bonds as the "safe" part of a portfolio can lead to a false sense of security. Many investors may be unknowingly exposed to duration risk, credit risk, or concentration risk within their bond holdings. The belief that bonds will always provide stability and income, regardless of market conditions, is a dangerous oversimplification in today's complex financial landscape.

A Nuanced Approach to Fixed Income

While our outlook on traditional bonds is cautious, this isn't a call to abandon fixed income altogether. Rather, it's a plea for a more nuanced, active approach to this crucial asset class. The key lies in understanding what you own and why you own it.

In the current environment, investors might consider alternatives to traditional long-duration government and corporate bonds. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) can provide a hedge against inflation risk. Short-dated bonds can help mitigate interest rate risk. Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs), while more complex, can offer attractive yields with some protection against rising rates due to their floating-rate nature. Convertible bonds can provide a unique blend of fixed income stability with potential equity upside, which may be attractive in certain market conditions. High-yield bonds, although carrying higher credit risk, can offer enhanced income potential and may be less sensitive to interest rate changes compared to investment-grade bonds. 

However, it's crucial to emphasize that the specific mix of these instruments should be carefully tailored. The optimal allocation will depend on individual circumstances, risk tolerance, investment goals, and the prevailing market environment. A skilled advisor can help navigate these options and construct a fixed income portfolio that aligns with an investor's unique needs and the current economic landscape.

Most importantly, successful fixed income investing in today's market requires being intentional. It demands a thorough process that consistently monitors and manages these risks. At Vaultis, our investment team employs sophisticated research and a global perspective to navigate these choppy waters. We believe that active management, careful security selection, and a willingness to challenge conventional wisdom are essential in today's bond market.

Conclusion

The fixed income landscape is changing, and yesterday's safe haven may be tomorrow's unexpected risk. While bonds remain an important part of a diversified portfolio, the key is to approach fixed income with a tactical, well-informed strategy. As an investor, it's crucial to work with advisors who understand these nuances and can help navigate the complexities of the modern bond market. By staying informed, remaining vigilant, and adopting a more active approach to fixed income investing, you can better position your portfolio to weather the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. In today's dynamic financial environment, a thoughtful and adaptable fixed income strategy is not just beneficial—it's essential for long-term financial success.

Disclosure:

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risks, including possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Fixed income securities are subject to various risks, including interest rate, inflation, credit, and default risk. Alternative investments like CLOs, convertible bonds, and high-yield bonds carry additional risks and may not be suitable for all investors. The views expressed are those of Vaultis Private Wealth as of the date of publication and are subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on current expectations but are not guarantees of future performance. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure profit or protect against loss in declining markets. Before investing, consider your financial situation, goals, and risk tolerance, and read all offering documents carefully. Vaultis Private Wealth is a Registered Investment Advisor. More information about our services can be found in our Form ADV Part 2, available upon request.

CLOs Explained: Structure, Function, and Market Role

In the ever-evolving world of finance, sophisticated investors are constantly seeking ways to enhance portfolio performance. One investment vehicle gaining traction among market participants is the Collateralized Loan Obligation (CLO). Let’s explore what CLOs are, how they work, and why they're attracting attention from investors and wealth managers alike.

What are CLOs?

Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) are structured credit instruments that pool together a diverse set of corporate loans. Imagine a carefully curated basket of loans, typically made to below-investment-grade companies. These loans are then divided into different "tranches" or slices, each offering varying levels of risk and return.

How do CLOs work?

1. Loan Collection: A CLO manager assembles a portfolio of corporate loans.

2. Securitization: These loans are packaged into a single security.

3. Tranching: The CLO is divided into tranches, ranging from senior (lower risk, lower yield) to equity (higher risk, potentially higher returns).

4. Active Management: Unlike some static pools, CLOs are actively managed by experienced professionals.

Key Features of CLOs:

1. Floating Rate: CLO coupons typically adjust with interest rates, offering some protection in rising rate environments.

2. Diversification: A single CLO can contain hundreds of loans across various sectors.

3. Structural Protections: Built-in safeguards aim to protect investors, especially in senior tranches.

4. Potential for Higher Yields: Compared to similarly rated corporate bonds, CLOs often offer yield premiums.

Why CLOs are Attractive to Investors

CLOs have several compelling attributes that make them an intriguing option for sophisticated investors:

1. Strong Historical Performance: Despite their complexity, CLOs have demonstrated resilience. AAA-rated CLO tranches have never experienced a default in the asset class's 30+ year history.

2. Yield Enhancement: CLOs can offer attractive returns, especially for those willing to venture into mezzanine tranches.

3. Floating Rate Nature: As we navigate uncertain interest rate landscapes, the floating rate feature of CLOs can provide a hedge against rising rates.

4. Diversification Benefits: CLOs can help diversify fixed income portfolios beyond traditional corporate and government bonds.

5. Active Management Advantage: The expertise of CLO managers in selecting and managing the loan portfolio can add significant value.

6. Structural Protections: Features like overcollateralization and interest coverage tests are designed to protect investors, particularly in senior tranches.

Approaching CLOs with Due Diligence

While CLOs offer significant potential, they require careful analysis and understanding. Investors and wealth managers typically conduct:\

• In-depth credit analysis of underlying loans

• Thorough evaluation of CLO structures and documentation

• Careful selection of CLO managers with proven track records

• Ongoing monitoring and risk management

When properly understood and strategically incorporated, CLOs can be a valuable component of a well-diversified portfolio, potentially offering enhanced yields without undue risk.

Conclusion

CLOs represent a sophisticated investment option that aligns with the goals of investors seeking innovative ways to generate returns. While they require expertise to navigate, the potential benefits make them a worthy consideration for suitable investors looking to enhance their portfolio strategies.

As with any investment decision, it's crucial to consider individual investment goals and risk tolerance. CLOs, while powerful, are not suitable for every investor. However, for those with the right risk profile and investment horizon, they can offer an intriguing opportunity to potentially boost returns and diversify fixed income holdings.

In the complex world of modern finance, CLOs stand out as a testament to financial innovation - offering new ways to access corporate credit markets and potentially enhance portfolio performance. At Vaultis Private Wealth, we recognize the potential of CLOs and include them as part of our overall portfolio strategy for suitable clients. However, it's important to note that CLOs, while powerful, are not appropriate for every investor. As with any sophisticated investment vehicle, education and careful consideration are key. Our team at Vaultis is committed to helping clients understand these complex instruments and determine if they align with individual investment goals and risk tolerances. By leveraging our expertise in CLOs and other innovative financial tools, we strive to create robust, diversified portfolios tailored to each client's unique financial objectives.

Disclosures 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The historical performance of CLOs does not guarantee future results. Investing in CLOs involves risks, including credit risk, interest rate risk, and liquidity risk. CLOs are complex financial instruments and may not be suitable for all investors.  This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should consult with their financial advisor to determine if CLOs are appropriate for their individual circumstances. At Vaultis Private Wealth, we include CLOs as part of our overall portfolio strategy for suitable clients. However, it is important to note that CLOs are not appropriate for every investor. Our team is committed to helping clients understand these complex instruments and determine if they align with individual investment goals and risk tolerances.

Tax-Loss Harvesting: A Year-Round Strategy

In the complex world of investment management, understanding and leveraging tax-efficient strategies is crucial for maximizing wealth. One such strategy, often misunderstood or underutilized, is tax-loss harvesting.

Tax-loss harvesting is a method of reducing your tax liability by strategically selling investments that have experienced a loss. These realized losses can then be used to offset capital gains from other investments, which may lower your overall tax bill. If your capital losses exceed your capital gains in a given year, you can use up to $3,000 of the excess to offset ordinary income, with any remaining losses carried forward to future tax years.

The mechanics of tax-loss harvesting are straightforward, but its effective implementation requires careful planning and execution. When an investment in your portfolio has declined in value, you sell it to realize the loss for tax purposes. Immediately after, you reinvest the proceeds in a similar (but not identical) investment to maintain your desired market exposure. This process allows you to capture the tax benefit without significantly altering your investment strategy.

It's crucial to note the IRS "wash sale" rule, which prohibits claiming a loss on a security if you purchase the same or a "substantially identical" security within 30 days before or after the sale. Navigating this rule effectively is essential to successful tax-loss harvesting.

While many investors and even some advisors only consider tax-loss harvesting at year-end, at Vaultis Private Wealth, we recognize that market volatility creates opportunities for tax-loss harvesting throughout the year. Our approach is proactive and ongoing, designed to capture value for our clients whenever market conditions present an opportunity.

Our team continuously monitors client portfolios for tax-loss harvesting opportunities. We employ sophisticated software and analytics to identify investments that have declined in value and may be candidates for harvesting. This constant vigilance allows us to act swiftly when opportunities arise, rather than waiting for an arbitrary date on the calendar.

When we identify a potential tax-loss harvesting opportunity, we carefully evaluate it in the context of the client's overall financial picture. We consider factors such as the size of the loss, the client's current and projected tax situation, and the role of the investment in the overall portfolio strategy. This thorough analysis ensures that any tax-loss harvesting action aligns with the client's broader financial goals.

The benefits of this year-round, proactive approach to tax-loss harvesting are significant:

1. Tax Savings: By consistently identifying opportunities to offset capital gains and potentially reduce ordinary income, clients may see substantial reductions in their annual tax bills. This approach can be particularly beneficial in years with significant market volatility.

2. Improved After-Tax Returns: Over time, the tax savings generated through harvesting can be reinvested, potentially leading to enhanced long-term portfolio growth. This compounding effect can significantly impact wealth accumulation over an investor's lifetime.

3. Customized Approach: By integrating tax-loss harvesting into our ongoing portfolio management process, we can tailor the strategy to each client's unique financial situation. This personalized approach ensures that tax-loss harvesting decisions are made in the context of the client's overall investment strategy, risk tolerance, and tax circumstances.

In conclusion, tax-loss harvesting is a powerful tool for enhancing after-tax returns, but its effectiveness lies in consistent, year-round implementation. At Vaultis Private Wealth, we've made this strategy an integral part of our investment management process, allowing us to capitalize on opportunities as they arise and maximize the potential benefits for our clients. By doing so, we help ensure that tax considerations are not just an afterthought, but a key component of a comprehensive wealth management strategy.

Disclosures:

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Tax-loss harvesting strategies may not be suitable for all investors, and the benefits can vary based on individual circumstances. The effectiveness of tax-loss harvesting is subject to change based on tax laws, which are subject to change. Investors should consult with their tax advisor or financial professional to understand the implications of tax-loss harvesting on their specific tax situation. Vaultis Private Wealth does not guarantee any specific tax savings or investment outcomes. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please be aware that the IRS "wash sale" rule may limit the ability to claim tax losses if a substantially identical security is purchased within 30 days before or after the sale. It is important to adhere to this rule to ensure compliance. For personalized advice tailored to your financial situation, please contact a qualified financial advisor.