The Risk of Foreign Ownership in U.S. Treasuries

We find ourselves in a unique place in the fixed income market, specifically with Treasuries. On April 4, 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.009%, only to climb to 4.494% by April 11—despite significant volatility in the equity markets. Historically, investors flock to the safety of U.S. government bonds during periods of stock market stress, driving yields lower. In this blog, we explore a critical factor we are closely monitoring: the risks posed by foreign ownership of U.S. Treasuries.

Foreign investors and central banks currently hold approximately $8.5 trillion in Treasury securities, representing roughly 30% of the total marketable Treasury debt. This substantial share underscores the importance of international demand in sustaining the Treasury market’s stability. However, this reliance introduces vulnerabilities, particularly in an environment shaped by President Trump’s “America First” policies and intermittent tariff proposals. Should foreign investors or central banks respond to trade tensions by selling their Treasury holdings or refraining from purchasing new issuances, the impact on the Treasury market could be significant.

The scale of this risk becomes evident when we consider the U.S. government’s borrowing needs. Over the next 12 months, approximately $9.3 trillion in Treasury debt is projected to mature, while the federal budget deficit is expected to reach $2.6 trillion. Together, this necessitates issuing roughly $12 trillion in new debt—a considerable figure relative to the $29 trillion marketable Treasury market.

If foreign demand weakens, whether due to retaliatory trade actions or other factors, yields could rise sharply as the Treasury competes for buyers. Higher yields would elevate the government’s interest expenses, exacerbating the fiscal deficit. We suspect this dynamic may have influenced President Trump’s recent decision to delay tariff implementations, as rising yields signaled caution in the bond market.

This foreign ownership risk is but one consideration in a multifaceted Treasury market (e.g., inflation, Fed policy, recession). On the supply side, the U.S. fiscal outlook suggests persistent government spending, requiring continuous issuance of Treasuries to finance deficits. Any disruption to demand—foreign or otherwise—could push rates higher, challenging the historical perception of Treasuries as a risk-free safe haven.

Foreign ownership of Treasuries during a potential trade war is one of multiple reasons we have found ourselves cautious about owning long-term Treasuries in our client portfolios. While historically considered a safe haven, the unique combination of factors at play introduces the risk that rates may need to increase in the coming years to satisfy the growing supply of Treasuries. When looking to reduce risk in our client portfolios, we are focusing on shorter-term, less interest-rate-sensitive fixed income areas.

Disclaimer: This blog post is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, legal advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Investing involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. The views expressed reflect Vaultis Private Wealth’s analysis as of April 14, 2025, and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult a qualified financial advisor to discuss your individual circumstances before making investment decisions.